Econ ministry: Russian economy may fall only 2.3–2.5% in 2015

MOSCOW, Jun 4 (PRIME) -- The Russian economy may see a 2.3–2.5% contraction in 2015 if oil prices remain at their current level, an official of the Economic Development Ministry told PRIME late Wednesday.

Earlier on Wednesday, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said the economy sees a full-fledged recession and that it will contract by 4% this year.

“A gross domestic product (GDP) fall forecast of 4% for this year looks overly conservative. The consensus is now closer to 3%. Literally, over the last few days, forecasts were posted by the World Bank (-2.7%), the OECD (-3.1%), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (-3.4%),” the official said.

“As you see, this is quite close to our official forecast (-2.8%),” the official said, referring to a forecast including a U.S. $50 per barrel oil price, lower than it is now in fact, he said.

Inflation may stand below 11% in 2015, the ministry’s representative said. “The situation with inflation looks more positive, as compared with our expectations, due to, firstly, an abrupt ruble strengthening which took place in April–May.”

Consumer prices rose 15.7% on the year as of early June, he said.

The ruble may see short outbursts of volatility but there are no fundamental factors undermining the ruble stability, he said.

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